Basketball Betting Tactics
1. Get to know your NBA team.
Study your teams, learn their strengths and weaknesses, know
their home and road records, and evaluate them objectively. Pay
attention to changes in the quality of a team from one season to
the next as players get older and changes occur in personnel and
coaching staffs. Salary caps and free agency make it more
difficult for teams to stay at the top for long periods, so
major improvement or decline from season to season is
commonplace in professional sports.
2. Value betting - find low risk high
Successful basketball gambling requires getting value on your
bets ... basically this means getting better than the "true"
odds on your team. For instance, if your objective prediction
for a game suggests that the Lakers should be receiving 5 points
but are in fact receiving 8, then this is a value betting
proposition. In this case, the risk to reward is very much in
your favor, making the Lakers a strong play.
3. Bet against public opinion.
Certain teams always have a strong public following. For years,
the Chicago Bulls were onc such team, having captured the
public's admiration during the Jordan years. High-value bets can
often be found by betting against these teams because the odds
makers adjust the line to reflect the expected amount of public
money ... thus, the underdog is often listed with better odds or
a larger pointspread than they realistically deserve.
4. Stay abreast of injuries.
Watch the injuries, but don't overreact to them. Judge the
importance of an injured player and the quality of his back up.
Remember that second-string players are often highly qualified
and are especially motivated when replacing a starter, so it
often pays to bet on a team missing its best player. The public
normally overreacts to injuries so you may find good value in
this situation. However, beware of situations where there is
more than one injured stud or there is an injury to the team's
captain or inspirational leader.
5. Bet on motivated teams.
Sometimes a team doesn't play up to its potential and, at other
times, may play well above what is indicated by their overall
record - especially in critical games. Determine how important a
game is to a team. If the team has already clinched a playoff
spot, they may be more focused on the post-season than the
present game. Conversely, a team facing a must-win situation to
make the playoffs may be highly motivated. A team out to revenge
a defeat earlier in the season may also be very motivated.
6. Bet with your head, not your heart.
Make an honest assessment of a team's chances, not one based on
emotions. Don't bet on a team simply because it's your favorite
without considering the real odds. Be selective and remember
that you will only find value betting situations in a small
number of games. Betting the entire NBA schedule every week is a
risky proposition at best.
7. Don't chase your losses.
When you do run into the inevitable losing streak, don't panic
and make the common mistake of betting larger amounts in an
attempt to recoup your losses. Instead, examine your
handicapping methods and reduce your betting amounts until you
start winning again. Remember - chasing your losses is the
single biggest mistake a gambler can make. Once you start
winning again, increase your bets slightly, but don't go
overboard - unfortunately, like losing streaks, winning streaks
also come to an end.
8. Don't bet just for the sake of betting.
There is no shame in passing up a bet. Remember that there are
sports betting opportunities almost every day of the year. Don't
bet simply for the sake of gambling - be patient and wait for
good value betting opportunities.
9. Practice smart money management.
Good money management is just as important as picking winners.
Increase your betting amount only when showing an overall profit
and reduce your betting amount when you are losing. Try to set a
maximum percentage of your betting capital that will be placed
on any one bet in order to minimize your exposure ... many
professional handicappers suggest that no more than five percent
of your wagering capital be at risk on any one bet, no matter
how strongly you feel about the game.
10. Keep accurate records.
Accurate records of your wagering activity are essential for
increasing your winning percentage. For example, do you tend to
bet your home team or your favorite team more than you should?
What are the current trends - are more underdogs winning early
in the season? By maintaining records of statistics as well as
your betting history will help you to avoid destructive wagering
patterns and, at the same time will enable you to spot trends
that may give you an edge.
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